Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Short Ahead of FOMC

I have put on a short position expecting immediate weakness off the announcement.  I have heard about there being too many looking for a pullback, or a sell the news reaction.  That is being contrarian just for contrarian's sake, and isn't supported by actual psychological drivers of market price action.  I still want to point out how the market has been conditioned to be bullish when the Fed pumps money, and that Pavlovian response is the linchpin for why we've rallied so much after 2 months. 

Once the anticipation is over, what is the next catalyst?  And at ES 1187, we are not going higher just because there aren't enough bulls.  The market fundamentals is not conducive to having a lot of bulls, because the stock market has a secular problem, not a cyclical one. 


Anonymous said...

How about better unemployment numbers. How's that for a catalyst? That would push this market up 10%

Petsamo said...

Jobless claims are a bad surprise, but when was the last time we sold off on bad news?