Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Commodities Liquidation

There is a commodities blowout going on.  To get an idea of which commodities are mostly lopsided on the spec long side, check out the COT charts.  Crude oil, copper, corn, soybeans have very high speculator longs open compared to past history.  Surprisingly, cotton and silver are not near the spec long highs. 

It makes sense that commodities are getting crushed to a much greater degree than stocks.  The hot money has been piling into commodities, not stocks.  They are the first ones to pull the ripcord when things get hairy.  The key to the game is to determine where the hot money comes back to when the coast is clear.  I believe it will be in the precious metals, and not the industrial/ag commodities. 

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