Thursday, November 11, 2010

Rumblings from CSCO

This market is very vulnerable.  The CSCO news was enough to dump the futures and now we have the 1-2 punch from CSCO and of course Europe, the perpetual punching bag for traders.  Meanwhile, gold is strong and oil has made a new high despite the stronger dollar.

It would be a gift to get a rally to 1220 today, I don't know if we'll make it up that high.  The G20 is a nonevent so I am not even paying attention to that.  I am just hoping for another chance to short at higher prices.

Anectodotally, it seems like the bears are in hiding, and the bulls seem emboldened by this strong uptrend.  Sentiment is set up such that we should get a whack down sometime in November.  I am forecasting a 60 point whack down to 1164  before Thanksgiving.  When you see gold giving up and tanking hard, that will probably be a sign that the pullback is near its end.  They always get to the strongest markets last. 

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