Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Due for a Selloff

We are long overdue for a selloff, and today can provide a convenient excuse for it.  I am not going into any of the technicals or the price action, but just into trader psychology.  The past two months have completed transformed the positioning in the Street from bearish to bullish.  This is especially the case for commodities and non-dollar currencies.  While I do see traders positioned for a selloff in stocks, they are not many positioned for a selloff in commodities or a dollar rally. 

Aside from a totally ridiculous sum like $1.5 T or $2 T promised asset purchases, I don't see much surprising this market to the upside.  If we get below consensus or near consensus program, disappointment will ensue.  At least until Friday's job report.  So there is a window of 36 hours where we are very likely to selloff.  That is the window I want to be short for.  I plan on shorting right before the FOMC announcement. 

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