Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Ask Dr. Bernanke

He has all the answers.  One size fits all prescription.  Print more money.  It is a repeat of bailout nation.  This time on a global scale as China is also in deep doo doo.  The central banks are overreacting to a problem which is not even close to those of 2008, and it will take risk assets flying higher.  Shorts are getting squeezed as usual.  Wash, rinse and repeat.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011


We have a lot of resistance in that price area, so we might not even get there.  But if we do, that would be an area to enter shorts.  If you are going to trade this market, it's best just to wait for the dips and buy.  The market feels about 3/4 of the way through this selloff.  That last 1/4 could push the market back down to 1120, or we can just get a soft selloff down to fill the gap around 1150.  We could just blasting higher from here in a relentless rally but that is the lowest possible scenario in my view. 

Thought we would not trade above 1200 today so this market is stronger than I expected.  Stronger than many expected.  Be careful on the short side. 

Monday, November 28, 2011

Money Printing

Italy is going to get rescued.  IMF is own and bought by the Europeans, they will bail themselves out.  All of a sudden, shorts are in a panic with this monster gap up.  I haven't seen a gap up this big in a long time.  The whole world must be short.  You better buy the dips from now on....

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

As Above So Below

We went straight up, and after the consolidation from 1220 to 1260, we're going straight down.  The market often plays out patterns in symmetry, fast up, fast down.  Fast down, fast up.  Since we went up so fast in October, it would not surprise me to see us go down fast in November.  With such deteriorating global economic fundamentals, I am waiting for blood on the Street before I buy.  Not even close yet.  Next stop is a gap fill around 1150-1155 zone. 


It is going to get ugly soon.  I was too optimistic.  And, I'm usually too pessimistic.  That is how bad the situation is for the bulls.  1150 will likely be broken, and with that, a likely trip back down to 1120, where we had numerous bottoms in August and September.  I will not be buying on Wednesday unless we get down to 1120.

Why do I say this?  First, we've been down for 5 straight days, and you still had a lot of call activity.  It is signaling there are still many looking to buy the dip.  And its unusual, because you would see a lot more put volume being down 70 points in 5 days.  China is turning into an absolute post real estate bubble mess, and no one is talking about it because Europe is itself imploding.  The weakest equity markets right now are in Asia, not Europe. Now China is readying to begin interest rate cuts, that is not the time you want to buy Chinese stocks. 

I missed a golden short opportunity at the beginning of last week, lots of regret because I've been looking for it for the past 3 weeks.  But with that said, I don't want to do something else I regret by buying too early.  I will wait for the panic to set in.  We are far from that, and I'm 90% sure that we'll get it within a week.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

More Weakness

We built up a wall of complacency over the past several weeks.  Talks of end of year rally, chase for performance, cheap valuations, etc. were used to hype up stocks.  It was all hype.  This is not your 2010 market.  The market spent its bullets in October, and its out of ammo in November. 

No one wants to be long as the markets are in a downtrend ahead of the Thanksgiving.  Look for the sheep to bail this week as the market tests lower lows.  I will be looking to enter long positions on Wedneday if we can get one more whack lower.  

Monday, November 21, 2011

No Deal

Supercommittee disappointed with no deal and we're getting the gap down.  Ahead of Thanksgiving, the longs will look to lighten up, especially now that their November options protection is gone, and I'm sure many didn't want to throw what they thought would be more money down the drain buying December puts. 

We're going down the hole this week, it's gonna get hairy.  European bonds seem to be on the final stages of weakness, most of the weak hands are out, and we should see a bottom soon in the Italian and Spanish bond markets.  That should provide the needed backdrop for a sustained bounce once we bottom, either end of this week, or next week.  1175 or 1150 for a bottom, I am leaning towards 1150.

Friday, November 18, 2011


We should consolidate the past 2 days move, we cliff dived from 1225 to 1207, and traded mostly between 1207 and 1216 for most of yesterday.  So there is a lot of trading to be done between 1225 and 1216.  The chasers are getting nervous here, they bought at high prices, and are anxiously hanging on to their shares at bad entries.  Expect them to eject those shares in the next 2 weeks, as we test 1175, and perhaps 1150, where there is a gap left behind from mid October.  I would not rule out a run all the way down to 1120, but it would take some serious fear in Europe for that to happen.  The sentiment surveys all came in bullish this week, the sheep are finally on board. 

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Missed It

Thar she blows!  This market has cracked, and we've broken out of the tight range.  I am expecting us to get to 1180 by next week.  It is going to get ugly as the fears of European contagion take over, however irrational they are.  The markets can be irrational in the short term, and will have temper tantrums, until it gets what it wants:  more money printing. 

Missed the short opportunity, unfortunately.  I will wait patiently for the time to get long, we are far from that opportunity. 

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Sittng on My Hands

We're not moving much over the past few days, its been tight trading between 1236 to 1262.  The ECB is coming in to support the Italian and Spanish bond markets.  ECB head Draghi has shown his true colors: Bernanke Light.  He is following in the same footsteps and will start wholesale monetization of the PIIGS debt.  It should be euro negative, were it not for QE3, which will be coming to a theater near you.  It is a fiat fantasy, printing money to solve problems.  Gold should hit $2500 sometime next year. 

Stocks can't stay down with this kind of money printing from the 2 biggest central banks in the world.    The world is awash in liquidity.  Any contagion fears that take stocks down are buying opportunities.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Italy and Spain Bonds

Italy and Spain are solvent countries facing speculative pressure on their bonds.  Rather than an attack, it just seems like the arbitrary bond holders are selling these 2 countries' bonds as a precaution against adverse moves rather than an actual fear that these countries will be like Greece.  Fundamentally, they are in better shape than 6 months ago when yields were lower because of the ECB backstop and EFSF which will commit to bond purchases later.  

This is still a faux crisis which is nothing like 2008.  If Italy and Spain were really in bad shape, I would say that this was a real crisis.  But the market is overreacting by grouping them with Greece.  It's traders pricing in a coming recession in Europe and contagion fears.  This doesn't mean we don't go down.  It just means if we go down to 1180, we won't stay down there for long.  No opinion on today's trading, it is fairly neutral on most fronts.

Friday, November 11, 2011

Toothless Bears

Another gap up and Europe is surging higher.  I wouldn't fade this gap up, it looks like the bears have gotten run over again by the bulls.  They might have another chance next week, but for now, I would not play either long or short.

Thursday, November 10, 2011

Getting to Tech

Tech stocks have been the safe haven of safe havens in this market.  It is a consensus view that if you want to be in stocks, you have to be in US stocks, or emerging markets.  If you are in US stocks, you have to be in dividend paying names or tech.  The long tech trade is a crowded trade.  The beta chasers are all in on tech.  They are avoiding high beta sectors like financials and the industrial cyclicals.

The NDX has outperformed S&P 500 for most of the year, but since we've bottomed in October, the S&P has been catching up.  It looks as if tech stock weakness could be another catalyst to pressure this market lower.  Apple looks like it has topped out. 

The size of today's gap up surprised me, but its been a gap and crap.  There are still a sizeable amount of dip buying funds who are chasing performance to make up for their bad numbers.  They are the weak hands that cause big whacks like yesterday.  They will be the ones panic selling in a couple of weeks as Europe gets shaky.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Mediocre Volume

Surprised to see the volume fairly light on such a big down day, this is up to 2:00 PM, maybe we'll have a lot more volume pick up in the last 2 hours of trade.  But seems like there isn't any panic.  This is unusual because we've seen heavy volume on the down days, which cleared out the weak hands for moves higher.  I would be very wary of buying any dips for the next 2 weeks.

Doesn't Matter Till It Matters

We've been shrugging off the slow motion crash in Italy for the past several days and it finally hit the stock market.  You've got a run for liquidity.  Italian 10 year bonds are near 7.5%, and are trading like hot potatoes.  This is going to pressure the European banks and we'll likely see ECB intervention soon.  I remain bearish because the stock market still has a long ways to go to reflect everything going on overseas.  Plus we've got the US budget committee having to come up with budget cuts by November 23.  That will keep traders from fully embracing risk for the next 2 weeks.  Staying short.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Twilight Zone

Italy is entering into the Twilight Zone.  Berlusconi is barely hanging on, which is about the worse possible political scenario for Italy.  Also you have the 10 year bond going to new lows.  US stocks are putting on their best Alfred E. Neuman act but eventually the turd hits the fan.  Expecting some bigger volatility in the coming days as the banks in Europe get taken out back. 


We have closed between 1250-1258 for the past 3 sessions, tightening the trading range.  I expect a 50 point move out of this consolidation over the next several days.  My belief is that it will be down.  Mainly based on the continued underperformance of European equities, growing complacency, and Italian 10 year bond pressures.  The Italian sovereigns are heavily owned by the European banks and any kind of run on those bonds would put extreme strain on the balance sheets of the European banks. 

A short around 1270 would likely be profitable in the intermediate term. 

Monday, November 7, 2011

Hard to Game

Headline risk coming from Italy has thrown a wrench into the market patterns.  Instead of getting the gap up, we got a gap down but only a minor one from much bigger weakness earlier in the overnight session.  I would look to position short because the Italian 10 year yields has reached terminal velocity.  We'll probably have a moment of panic during US hours, not just European hours sometime soon.  Early strength followed by afternoon weakness today.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Gap Up Signal

Expecting the market to gap up on Monday.  The Greeks were the excuse to sell today.  Once that excuse is out of the way at least in the short term, they will bid 'em up as the algos go back to work.  We may get to 1270-1275 area before we stall out and drop hard. 

Short Soon

We've gone up the past 2 days, after going down for 2 days.  Yet we are 35 points away from Friday's close.  I notice a subtle shift from strength to weakness here.  Sentiment has gotten much less bearish, according to surveys and just from my anecdotal feel from watching CNBC.  This while we trade sideways to down.  The Italian 10 year yields have hit a new 52 week high.  Greece is a smoke screen for the deterioration in the Italian bonds.  The ECB still hasn't signaled it will increase its bond buying program, and it will be hard to do that politically until they see the market get panicky.  The Germans are steadfastly against any monetization of PIIGS debt, so the ECB can't do much just yet.

Not sure about today, just believe we're going to go lower from these levels over the next 2 weeks.  Initial target around 1185, which is the 50% retracement of the move in October.

Thursday, November 3, 2011

ECB Rate Cut

Well, the new ECB head has lowered rates 25 bp, and we get a spike up on that.  They could drop it to zero and it doesn't solve the problem of Greek debt.  Greece looks like it is on the brink, with the ruling government probably in its final days, we may seem some chaos with no government soon.  Expecting intraday weakness today.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

No QE3

If you want the Fed on your side, you want them to say the economy is horrible.  They did not do that, which tells me that they are going to wait at least a couple of months before considering more QE.  That is a definite negative.  Bernanke is starting to fee the political pressure from the Republicans and is taking his foot of the gas for fear he will get fired if Obama is not re-elected.

DAX Dropped 600 Points

Sometimes we are too focused on just the S&P 500.  When you look at Europe, it is back to being a laggard.  Dax has dropped 10% from high to low from last Thursday to yesterday.  Eurostoxx 50 at over 10% drop.   S&P dropped just 80 points, or about 6% from high to low.  Europe seems to be a leading indicator for the S&P, when it lags, it signals trouble ahead.  It has been lagging the S&P for the last 2 weeks, and the market finally cracked. 

Enough with the Greece charades.  They should just pull the plug on the pig.  Euthanize it instead of trying to save Greece.  It isn't worth saving.  When they do finally let Greece go bankrupt, Europe will probably be able to rally for 6 months nonstop. 

Expecting a dip and run today.  Buy the dip, we are oversold. 

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Fast Moves

This market is throwing out all the patterns from the past.  It goes up in a straight line and goes down in a straight line, with very little consolidation in between.  We are not down because of Greece, they are meaningless.  We are down because too many fund managers got nervous being left behind and chased the market higher after the good news came out! Now they are caught with their pants down after buying the euphoria (which was on huge volume as mentioned last week). Calls for new highs, 1300, they were all signs of a top. 

We'll have a nasty down day today and then we'll probably grind higher slowly on a wall of worry.