Monday, November 22, 2010

Ireland then Portugal then...

Be careful for what you wish for.  Ireland bailout was awaited by the Street to eliminate the uncertainty.  But I don't know anybody who thought the bailout wouldn't happen.  So it was an uncertainty that had a certain outcome.  Sometimes logic doesn't work on Wall Street.  All the Ireland bailout did was turn the focus to Portugal which will make traders nervous because Spain is next after that.  And none of the countries really matter until you get to Spain.  Of course Spain is less vulnerable because it isn't in as bad a shape as P I G.  But the market can make it more vulnerable. 

One thing I am noticing today is the strength in the precious metals despite the weaker euro.  The group looks sold out to me and will likely be the first to rocket higher once stocks stabilize.  We might get one last flush out as I do believe stocks and commodities are going lower for the next few days.  I would not be surprised to see gold go up almost every single day in December and close out the year well above the current YTD high. 

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