Monday, March 22, 2010
New Highs Tomorrow
The momentum of this market will probably take us to new highs tomorrow. The sellers were notably absent today after that "horrible" healthcare bill and Greece news. I think the sellers have pretty much gotten all the mileage they can out of Greece. What else is new? And the healthcare bill passage was one of the most telegraphed pieces of bad news in quite a while. I expect a small gap up tomorrow as buyers are relieved that health care uncertainty is gone.
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8 comments:
I remember the last time you got bullish was in January around 1150 right before the market took a bath.
So probably this marks a top around here somewhere. I think the game is to get the die hard bears to turn bullish, and then the true bulls sell into them and convert to the bear camp in reversal of roles.
I am not really bullish. If I was bullish, I would be long now. I just think this market isn't going down tomorrow. Perhaps starting Wednesday, but not tomorrow. This is not like January, btw. The complacency then was much greater than it is now.
How was complacency lower in JAN.If you check VIX bottomed between JAN 11 to 19th between
17 to 18. Now complacency is more
as VIX is lower.
Also i agree with the above comment that you talking about buying the dips nowadays means something here :) may be we r really at top.
Haha, I'm a contrarian indicator now. I wonder if they sold the gap down today that I said should be bought.
No doubt you are great at calling for buying dips such as today. This is after some time when you switch to bull for a quick trade while shorting the market while it keeps going up for some time. You give in to the buy the dip crowd.
However, when this has happened, it seems to be that it signals a broader top in the market.
Sure the market can go a little higher tomorrow, but when the time comes that you give up on shorting and convert to buying dips like today, it seems to signal a change in psychology from bear to bull and could be representative of a larger theme of bears capitulating.
And it's true. VXX was almost at 30 dollars in January before the "crash". Now it's at almost 20. There is more complacency now than before.
Overall, I think trying to time the broader market is a hard game to game this year, and should not be done IMO.
Just because the VIX is lower now does not mean people are more complacent. Peoples' guards are up. As for me, I'm more alert to possible sell offs. -Petsamo
Guys, I think we're selling off on Tuesday. -Petsamo
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