Friday, March 12, 2010

Breaking 1150

The paper napkin chartists are going to go bananas if we close over 1150, meaningfully.  It is just a number, but it does affect investor behavior and sentiment.  I have a hard time seeing this market go up strongly from these levels, it would surprise me if we went over 1160.  Historically, such strong momentum we've experienced doesn't lead to an immediate correction, but usually some churning and burning.  So that is what I expect, I expect us to churn from 1125 to 1155 on the ES for the next couple of weeks.  That will likely set up the next correction which should be less steep but last longer than the one we had a few weeks ago.

For today's intraday action, I expect us to trade slightly above 1150 SPX after the open, and then go back down to test 1140 SPX midday. 

1 comment:

Petsamo said...

I've always known Fridays to be non-bearish. The downturn may occur Monday. I'll be looking for downturns today, though, in case I'm wrong.