March ES Projection

Making a wild guess, but I see further consolidation from here to slightly higher levels for the next week or so.  Once bullishness builds up and the Greece situation is out of the picture, the market will be ripe for the next correction.   This change reflected in sentiment surveys and anectodal evidence should be sufficient to satisfy the conditions of complacency.

Then I see a step down into a lower trading range and then a steady move down after March expiration, with the down move starting in earnest from post expiration Monday.  There should be plenty of dip buyers along the way down, which will make the down move slower but more steady than the correction from mid January to early February. 

Upper range target is 1135 on the ES and the lower range target is the 200 day moving average, which should be around 1045-1050 in late March.