Friday, March 12, 2010
Going Home Short
The bulls rounded up the troops to try to close the market up. The shorts are all but obliterated, and right now everyone is expecting a Mutual Fund Monday with dumb money going crazy buying stocks. Weakness in gold and crude oil tell me that funds are already loaded up on risk right now. Next week is options expiration, there has to be a down day sometime! I am holding my short position overnight playing for a gap down for Monday and further selling.
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8 comments:
In looking at their charts, overseas markets are ready to sell off on Monday. ETFs carrying companies of China and India sold off more than fair value. The DAX has a shooting star candlestick. Barring any good surprises, I have never been so sure of a gap down on Monday and the return of the bear. -Petsamo
Hey Owl, appreciate your site and all the thoughts you share. The other (3/11 @ 4:52 PM) you said in a comment ".. I think there is 10 points upside maximum, and I see a very real possibility of going to 1028 by middle of next week." Did you really mean 1028? or 1128?
Meant 1128, sorry.
after this little correction and a chance to recoup my loss and make a small profit i am going to be more cautious getting short dawg. we're beginning another economic growth cycle and on a path to 1500 in the next couple of years. regulation and wary induced scrutiny are going to prevent financial institution mismanagement which will rule out crashes. theres just too much money out there and not enough supply of unrenewable resources. and it's all paper money. this is all going into stocks.
I would agree with your direction OD.
After a quick pullback I will close my shorts and just be more of a bullish trader. This small rally we are having is exactly the same thing that caught me again and again last year.
The market would go up 10% and I'd be shorting looking for a pullback. By the time we got a quick 1-2 day pullback it wouldnt even be enough for me to break even. Then the bulls would rally again.
A vicious cycle I always got caught in.
i agree with your assessment anon. it's ridiculously impossible to pick tops because the news is weighing way more heavily on the bullish side than bearish whether it's economic or company specific. that is what happens after being in a recession for three years and is the ebb and flow of economic cycles. it will be easier to buy dips than short tops until the market finds excuses to sell more available than now. simply way too hard to make money shorting nowadays.
Posted: March 13, 2010 at 6:25 am
The FT reports that Google (GOOG) has made all the necessary plans to close its Chinese search engine business and is “99.9%” certain it will shut the operation down shortly.
The futures are down over 3.
Hopefully we fail this breakout test. All these retards are seeing stocks that are at all time highs and saying "oh it's time to get long" Look at it! Wow.
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