Thanksgiving Day Massacre

Who would have thunk it?  A 25 point move down in the ES on Thanksgiving Day?  I don't think you can script it any more unpredictably.  I don't know anyone who saw this coming, I expected a gap down of a few points, not 25.  This is not because of Dubai World.  Here are my thoughts on the current situation:

• We got overbought and investors got too complacent expecting a Thanksgiving rally.  Market doesn't make it that easy. 
• Sentiment readings are too bullish, not enough bears.
  
• Short sellers were scared to get short ahead of the holiday.  This market is lacking in weak shorts.  Only shorts left are strong hands that will not cover easily.  
• Eventually, dollar weakness becomes a cause of equity weakness, not strength.  It eventually scares away investors who fear global currency instability.  
• Weakness in crude oil, bad breadth, divergences showing failure to make new highs in Japan and Europe during November. 

However, the lows around 1083 are solid support in overnight hours and I think the damage has been done in the overnight markets.  We'll probably make a slight recovery heading towards 1090 going into Friday morning in the futures.