Monday, November 23, 2009
Premature Holiday Optimism
The put call ratios have crashed down, the equity put call ratios are below 0.5 on the CBOE. The overall put call ratio is low at 0.64. On the ISE, you have the ISEE index at 217, which is heavy call buying. The market made its top in the first hour on the existing home sales data and have been slowly sliding down. The bots and fund managers are trying to front run each other ahead of the "Thanksgiving rally". All the buying happened in the first hour and prices reflect a lot of optimism. Fundamentals are not strong enough to keep S&P above 1100 for long. I am bearish for the 2nd half of the day.
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3 comments:
The longer the markets stay up, and the more the fundamentals catch up to the market, the less the bears have a case.
I"m no longer as extremely bearish as I used to be.
I was a Kodiak like you last week.
After the home sales today, I turned into a Panda.
Tomorrow I might be a Koala.
Call me crazy, but the higher the valuation, the more negative I get. Fundamentals are horrible, getting a little bit better doesn't make a difference. This market is pricing in the economy to get much better. In any case, the economy and the stock market are two totally different animals.
Yeah but dawg, when was the last time you've been to a Starbucks or a Bestbuy or to a mall on the weekend to see what the people are up to.
It ain't a great depression that's for sure. There are not people standing in lines waiting for handouts.
Granted there are lines at the job fair. But it's clear to me.
The 3 out of 5 people who are employed are not hurting right now.
That's because the companies know that these are the ones they'd have to keep and save money axing the other two. These 3 are getting paid, probably better than before, and they are spending.
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