Rough Times

Well, we expended a lot of effort to lose 20 points on the ES in 2 days.  That must have been the hardest 20 points on short side that I've ever seen.  If you were not overnight short on Wednesday, you missed it.  I run out of expletives when it comes to describe this market. It is horrible for a bearish trader like me who likes to play past market patterns.  The moves are not that predictable and the underlying strength is noticeable.  I don't know if this is a bull market, but it certaintly isn't a bear market.  It seems to have  changed character to a range bound market, a market that doesn't like to go up or down much.  ES above 1105 induces weakness and ES below 1085 induces strength.  A very narrow range to play.

Unfortunately, today expended a lot of the fear component that was bottled up for several weeks.  That makes me hesistant to short aggressively.  Psychologically, it now becomes trickier.  Investors are no longer completely complacent, and they are not fearful.  The only strategy that I can build from the past 2 days is to wait for the complacency to rebuild itself by the market going sideways/higher for a week and then go short again.  And that short will be to hit a double or a triple.  I am looking for 60 points in that case.  If we fall hard before then, I miss the move and wait for the next high percentage setup.  Being patient is better than forcing trades when things are not going well.