Monday, November 9, 2009

Bearish setup in Crude

Based on the Committment of Traders report, the large speculators have been increasing their bullish positions and reducing their short positions.  Their net long position over the past 2 weeks is the biggest for the year.  Also a bad sign is that small speculators are jumping on the bandwagon and going long.  The commercials are usually the smartest money and usually hold the strongest hand.  The speculators will be the first to sell when the sentiment changes. 

Only bad thing about these COT reports is that they are delayed 3 trading days, which means Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday trading action is not included.  On Friday, some speculator liquidation seemed to have occurred as crude sold down despite a positive day in stocks.  Hurricane Ida, weaker dollar, and rising futures have taken crude up in the overnight session.  As I project that equities will go down  in the upcoming weeks, crude oil should go down even more.
Following chart is from cotpricecharts.com.


4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Yo dawg.

Isn't the dollar about to bounce soon?

There is pressure from China to handle the US deficit because their currency is pegged to the dollar. There's the shitty jobs report which, which CNBC says should put pressure on Obama to shore up the dollar. (not sure why though)

Anyways, I got long EDZ at 5.71.

It's time to drop the hammer on this market. I'm in a 3/5 position and I will average down the othe 2/5 if we keep going higher.

Technically, it doesn't look to me like we can make another top. I think we'll fall short of that.

There is no economic news this week except for the jobless claims that come out on Thursday. And those will lower because people are running out of their claims not because they're finding jobs.

Obama is also in Asia this week. Asian heads of state are probably going to pressure him to shore up the dollar because they no longer want to buy shitty movies and so they can sell more cars and electronics and shit to Walmart.

Therefore, the dollar rallies and the market goes down the drain.

twitter.com/skang357

Market Owl said...

I don't think the market will go down much today. I gave it a short side try but I got stopped out. I am going to wait to see how far bulls can take it up today. It might be better just to wait to short the close or tomorrow's open.

Back to 1.50 on euro/dollar. Dollar seems hell bent on making all time lows but I see a turn soon, maybe after making a new high for the year and then reversing.

Anonymous said...

That news article says 1.60.

I don't know anything about f/x.

Anyways, the way the mkt shot up at the open, this seems to be the way the mkt trades when there is massive short covering. Then longs jump in and hold it up.

I got burned on RPRX. Down like 20%. Only think is I don't own very much of it.

I realize now that it's a completely shitty company.

Market Owl said...

RPRX sounds familiar, it may have been a pump and dump in the past. A past pump and dump that turns into a dumper is the worst kind of dumper to buy.

When you buy the dumpers, you gotta realize that there are no good companies. Just shitty ones and less shitty ones.