Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Healthy Pullbacks?

No one wants to buy the top, but many want to buy a pullback, when the pullbacks continue to be shallow, the trend is not vulnerable, and likely to continue.  Deep pullbacks within a long uptrend (more than 3 months) are signs of topping and signal a trend reversal a few weeks to months down the line.  Healthy pullbacks is an oxymoron, the more pullbacks and recoveries, the weaker the uptrend. Strong markets do not let you in.  Well, this market has had a habit of not letting buyers in for most of this rally, but things changed from around middle of September.  On the daily closes, we had a 35 point selloff from 1013 to 978 in August, another 35 point selloff from 1029 to 994 in September/October, a 46 point selloff from 1067 to 1021, and a 58 point selloff from 1091 to 1033 in October.  It is looking like a megaphone.  The pullbacks are getting deeper and after an 8 month rally, plus increasing bullishness and complacency, that is a big warning sign that the trend is about to change. 


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Agreed dawg.

Tops seem to get higher by around 20 to 30 points each time a new top is made.