The shorts have lost a fortune shorting after V bottoms, and have a very depleted capital base, so they are almost a nonfactor now. I still see a lot of 1 lot bears out there, strong conviction, but very little capital. They aren't trading 1 lots because they are risk averse. Its because they don't have the funds to trade any bigger. They just can't push the market down without longs selling on the way down. And obviously, you just saw very little selling on the "bad OPEC news".
I am much more interested in what the longs are doing. They are the ones with the capital to deploy, they are the ones with the firepower. They matter. The shorts are pretty much irrelevant at this point. But it is interesting that the longs have a similar opinion as the shorts, they believe the market is overvalued, due for a pullback, and that earnings aren't going to be good. And I believe they are right.
It is one of those times when the majority are correct but they are positioned differently from each other. You can be cautious but still be long. I think that is what the majority are at this point. It makes it tougher to trade when the majority believe the same way you do and the price action is going in the opposite direction. Anyway, I still believe down but it is not very high conviction.
The OPEC Doha result was an expected "surprise". I am sure most didn't expect much out of the meeting, and what people are forgetting is that the meeting just isn't that important. There just isn't much action right now and every little thing is jumped on as if it is meaningful, just because of the lack of news. I actually think oil will be going up over the next 2 weeks, because of the positive seasonality and the price action.
The S&P should pullback a little bit here, due to post opex forces, and overbought readings, although I am not putting any money on the idea. Better safe than sorry.
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Well the FTSE did not make a new high unlike the S&P. It tends to precede a S&P decline so you may be right about a pullback roundabout here.
Well now it has :) and thew S&P surges too, I think they want all the bears whipped silly.
Bears gonnat keep take a beating until they give up. They have not given up.
Now I get up around whenever. I used to get up on time.
But that old man, he's a real motherfucker, gonna kick him on down the line.
I used to do a little but the little wouldn't do it so the little go more and more.
I just keep trying to get a little bit better, said a little better than before.
I used to do a little but the little wouldn't do it so the little go more and more.
I just keep trying to get a little bit better, said a little better than before.
We've been dancing with Mr. Brownstone. He's been knocking. He won't leave me alone.
No no no oh oh. He won't leave me alone.
Stuck it in the middle. And I shot it in the middle and it drove me out of my mind. I should have known better. Said I wish I never met him. Said I.. leave it all behind.
Yowza.
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