Saturday, April 23, 2016

VIX in May

The spot VIX, currently at 13.22, while the May expiration VIX futures is at 16.2.  This 3.0 spread between spot and the front month is extreme.  Normally the spread in an uptrending market is closer to 1 - 1.5.  The VIX traders are very reluctant to sell VIX even with realized volatility much lower.  Usually these are warning signs that the market is about to get more volatile soon.

It is hard to buy VIX futures and make money because of the steep contango.  But the next best thing to buying volatility is to short ES.  Considering that we are in a heavy resistance area where lots of topping occurred over the past year with investor positioning on the bullish side and you have potential for a sharp pullback.  I don't see 1800 happening, but 1950 sometime within the next 3 months is very possible.

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