Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Short's Time Coming Up

The market is getting tired, but has been very resilient despite bad earnings from the big tech names.  It helps that oil is grinding higher and supporting energy and commodity names.  I am hearing about a renewed credit pump in China and feverish speculation in commodities there.  It is really stunning to see these newbies in China jump from bubble to bubble.  The last bubble is their real estate market, and it is only a matter of time before that one goes bust, and with it massive financial panic.  

Got the Fed meeting today and it is going to be uneventful.  Yellen laid out her cards not just once, but twice in March.  At the FOMC March meeting and several days later in a dovish speech which seemed like it was written in mid February, not late March.  The statement should be almost the same as the one that was deemed so bullish for the financial markets in March, with a few tweaks to acknowledge that the stock market is stronger than before.  Really, you just have to look at the S&P 500 and that gives you a good idea of where the FOMC is at when it comes to monetary policy.  Since we're about 60 points higher than when the last FOMC statement was released, you can expect something more positive about the economy.  

The shorts should finally have there time to shine over the next few weeks.  We've cleared out a lot of weak hands on the short side over the past 2 months, and although you are not getting the full commitment from longs as you did last year or 2014, they have mostly added their equity exposure and won't likely add more unless you see the earnings outlook improve.  And that seems extremely unlikely.  The economy has rolled over, and it is going to take a massive stimulus to bring it back to 2014 or even 2015 levels.  That makes me bullish on bonds here, and more willing to short the S&P.  I have closed out my S&P long and will now look to position for the next few weeks where I expect weaker markets.  

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