Thursday, April 21, 2016

Fear & Loathing Phase in Bonds

The bond market is like a ship.  The rising stock and oil market are like water seeping into the ship.  Up to a certain point, the ship stays afloat and can ignore rising risk asset prices.  But when you cross the breaking point, like we did yesterday with the S&P breaking out above 2100, and oil breaking out above 43, you get selling.  A torrent of selling that is unleashed and starts to sink the ship.  Once it starts sinking, there is no point of return, even if stocks go down in response to a weakening bond market, at least until you flush out the weak hands.

It doesn't mean the bull market in bonds is over.  This wave of selling/liquidation usually lasts about 1 week, and if we get a Fed that is just neutral (I doubt they will be hawkish), that will be enough to send this bond market into the final wave of selling which should be met with long term buyers and form a tradeable bottom.  I am expecting that around 1.95-2.00% 10 year yields.

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