Friday, March 31, 2017

V Bottom Again?

After so many V bottoms over the years, the first instinct after a 5 day rally off a bottom is that we will keep grinding higher and higher.  But I don't believe that to be a likely scenario.  First of all, there is still a big risk event coming up in April/May, the French elections, which has hardly been mentioned.  That means there are few worries about it, even though it seems like Le Pen still has some possibility to win.  Next, the lack of a bigger thrust higher off the Monday close shows that there is not as much rocket fuel for this rally.   We are already flattening out around 2360-2368 SPX zone, which is the consolidation zone from pre-FOMC.  There is more resistance than people think.

I am hearing the bulls get loud again, already, thinking V bottom.  The strong intraday price action has gotten them bulled up again.  Although this rally has lasted longer than I expected, it just doesn't have the momentum of past V bottoms.  And the bull's favorite, the financials, are still trading well off their highs earlier this year.  Perhaps the market can grind slightly higher in the favorable early April seasonal period, but that should be the local top for this move, and we should retest SPX 2325 in the coming weeks.

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