Tuesday, March 21, 2017

French Election Selloff

It's already started.  With 4 weeks till round 1 of the French elections, the investors are starting to get nervous.  Sure, the polls say that Macron won round 1 of the debate, and is favored to win round 2 over Le Pen by 20%, but after the Brexit and US presidential polling misses in 2016, the trust is gone.  French political uncertainty will be getting priced in quickly over the next couple of weeks, and it all starts off with days like today, finally a 1% down move intraday.  I am sure the dip buyers are salivating at the chance to buy "bargains", even though they are just at the same price they were 4 weeks ago, which was an all time high at the time.

Let's face it.  The S&P is a pig.  It is a bubble.  This is what happens to bubbly markets.  They drop suddenly for no reason.  I expect more weakness in the coming weeks so I will pass on this BTFD opportunity.

It is a pity that I missed the SPX short by a few points last week, but with my position in bonds, I wanted to be selective about shorting ES.  Oh well.  Too late to short 'em.  Too early to buy 'em.

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