Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Gap Down After Drop

Not a good sign for the bulls for the next couple of weeks to see this market gapping down after a big drop the previous day.  Usually you see a little gap up after days like yesterday.  There will be more selling in the weeks ahead, although probably an oversold bounce today into Yellen speech tomorrow.

We will probably have to make a lower low today and then there could be a quick daytrade opportunity on the long side.  There haven't been many down days to buy throughout this rally, so I am sure there will be dip buyers anxious to buy today on any weakness, for fear of missing the choo choo train higher again.

Any intraday low towards SPX 2325-2330 will be a buy zone.  Not interested in shorting today.  The S&P is tradeable again, with the return of volatility.  I give this about 4 weeks max before the rally monsters come back with a vengeance.  In the meantime, there will be daytrading opportunities.  Medium term, I don't see a lot of downside from here, perhaps another 30-40 points, before we find a level where buyers will come in to support stocks.

There was no news to drive this market lower yesterday, Trump not being able to bully the healthcare bill through Congress was forecast weeks ago.  It just happened that post opex, with many investors feeling like puts are a waste of money, decided to go unprotected.  This is what happens when they are unprotected.  Plus buyback blackout period and French election fears.  It is almost the perfect scenario for bears, till mid April.  But it will be choppy.  Dip buyers have a lot of ammo considering there have hardly been any dips the past 4 months, and they will provide support on intraday swoons.

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