Friday, March 24, 2017

Mountain Out of a Capitol Molehill

Here we go again.  Another exaggeration effort by the media and the financial market "analysts".  This one really does take the cake.  If there ever was a more meaningless hyped up vote than this one, I can't think of it.  You cannot compare this with the fiscal cliff or TARP.  Those actually affected the economy, and thus the markets.  This one, even if it passes, is almost guaranteed to get shot down in the Senate.  And if it doesn't pass, nothing changes.  The Republicans will just be able to move on quicker towards tax reform.

On a "no" vote, I would buy any dip towards SPX 2325-2330, as I see it as a short term overreaction.  I would sell quickly on the subsequent bounce back because there are other things more troubling for this market.  On a "yes" vote, I would wait for the market to get back towards the SPX 2360 area and short it.

This vote doesn't change the market situation.  Investors are paring back risk, and the more important event, the French elections, is being ignored as all eyes are on the healthcare bill.  I actually expect even more weakness when the worry comes to the French elections and a possible Le Pen win.  The European scarecrows will be out in droves stirring up the markets then.

Watching and waiting, looking to fade any overreactions.

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