Friday, January 24, 2014

To BTFD or Not to BTFD

The market is in a topping process.  During the topping process, the increase in volatility while chopping is a sign of an imminent trend change.  We are almost at that point.  All the cockroaches are coming out.  The biggest one, China, will remain for the year.  Just as Europe was a monkey on the market's back for 2010 and 2011, China will be that monkey.  It will weigh down on markets if they get too exuberant.  I expect China to crash this year.

Then there are the unknown cockroaches that are brought out of nowhere, like the devaluation of Argentina peso.  And of course, the lack of earnings growth which is in the background, only brought into the forefront when investors get bearish.

When they start bringing out weird and new cockroaches, usually that is a sign of trend exhaustion, but we've only started this downleg yesterday!  So that confuses me, the market seems a bit nervous over a one day decline.  And now that we have the big gap down, we should see the end of this decline today.  Question is, do you BTFD at the open, or at the close?  I am not sure, but I know I still want to BTFD, until proven that it doesn't work.  I have my fingers ready over the buy button, we should bounce by next Monday.

So yes, BTFD today.

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