Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Overnight Fakeout

It was mind boggling to see the ES up 12 handles on a Turkey rate hike, so I figured there were some shorts trapped, but I see that reality is setting in again, as the Turkish ETF, TUR, is back down after the AH spike up.  I have never seen a sustained up move in a market where a country needed to raise its interest rates to 12% in order to keep the hounds at bay.

But that is besides the point, the market wants to go lower, because we are topping out here, the bounce yesterday was not convincing, and a 25 point down move from high to low overnight smells of extreme weakness.  Any rallies are being used as selling opportunities now.

Despite the big gap down today, I don't expect much damage because its FOMC day.  But Thursday and Friday should be total bloodbaths.  Staying in cash and waiting for panic to set it before I buy any dips.  Or better yet, if the market can rally from the open today, I will be shorting anywhere close to ES 1787.

No comments: