Thursday, January 9, 2014

Making a Bearish Bet

There are a few different ways to take a bearish position on the stock market.  The most direct way is to short the S&P 500.  I don't want to do this.  The next best thing is to short an international equity market.  This is a good idea, especially when you can choose one that is continuously weaker than the S&P.  China is a prime example of this.
Then you can go short something like the USDJPY which trades with a high correlation to the equity market.  This is also another good idea, and one that I prefer over shorting the S&P.

Then another option is to go long Treasuries.  This is something I like to do when I can avoid big economic reports, but the nonfarm payrolls cause huge moves to the Treasury market, so it is something I prefer to bet on when there is no jobs report or Fed meeting on the horizon.  The last option, the one with a moderate level of correlation, is to short commodities, in particular, crude oil.  But crude oil has already dumped huge from the top and I see limited downside near term.  

Right now, if I were to make a bet on the downside for the US equity market, I would choose in order of preference, 1. short USDJPY 2. short China 3. long Treasuries 4. short crude oil 5. short S&P 500

Very resilient market, volatility is very low, I see no big down move until we start seeing more intraday volatility.  Waiting on that bear suit, getting it pressed and dry cleaned at the moment.

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