Thursday, April 1, 2010
Fresh Money In
It is the start of a new quarter, and the day before a holiday. That can only mean one thing. Buy. Buy. Buy. The buyers are getting more and more impatient waiting for that pullback that never appears. I think we can keep squeezing higher as the next few days should bring out more impatient buyers after the nonfarm payrolls and ahead of Q1 "blockbuster earnings" for everybody. It seems insane to fight this kind of momentum so I won't. I will likely do little today. I think 1195, which equates to 1200 SPX will be a time to make a stand on the short side. I hope I get that chance next week. I will grab a swing short at those levels.
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If we close below SPX 1174 and we get a gap down on Monday, we could still drop Monday.
Sold EDZ @ 40.55
OD
OD, I should have sold mine last week. Now I'm in the hole! Luckily not a large position. Wondering if I should buy more of sell and go for edc?
EDZ is a POS. it went down yesterday even though the mkt went down. The time decay is terrible on that stock. I still have DRV which went down way less than EDZ. I don't want to pick the direction of the mkt anymore. its a futile activity to pick tops when the market is propped by the fed and excess liquidity. i think we are going to 1250 at least this year and volatility will die. it will be a losers game to short the market. i'm sticking to regular stocks now. maybe i'll buy edz at 30.
i mean it should be plainly obvious by now that the economy is rebounding and we're in an early stage. people who think this is still 2008 and hope for a double dip are gonna be feeling pain. even if we correct its just going to be small. the risk to reward to short the market is longer supported by the economy. 2008 is over and done with.
Ooo, someone's listening to me :)
Good stuff, thanxs OD
I did dump edz and bought some edc. I will add to edc if it dips.
OD to the rescue!
Hey I did mention I"m not going to try to pick the direction of the market. You're owning a stock that's coming from 86 dollars. More than 50% in a month. Just something to consider.
Because of the time decay, you'll lose around close to 5% just by holding it for a month even if the market does nothing. These stocks have to constantly lever and relever every day.
In that sense if you're bullish on the market you would have an added juice to your gain by shorting edz than getting long edc.
Thanks, this is meant to be a quick trade.
Although the edz trade was also meant to be a quick trade but I got greedy and didn't pull the trigger when i was up 10%. I lost that plus some.
I try not to hold these triple leveraged etf's to long.
EDZ hit a fresh 52 week low on Friday. Rarely do these bounce off that and head straight up. If anything they continue lower.
I think if we go higher, and who knows, that 1170 will be the support for a correction from say a high of 1200 to 1210.
If we start correcting now, 1150 before the dip buyers rear their ugly heads.
Either EDZ is close to a bottom now, or at 1210, I expect it will be around 35 bucks.
But I think I prefer DRV because it's a US real estate index stock and that market is more bearish than obviously China, which I"m sure EDZ has a relationship with.
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