Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Top Picking
I don't think I am alone in trying to pick a top in this market. It has been frustrating to find the turn, and there have been few clean setups. That is what happens when the market just grinds higher bit by bit and rarely moves to short term extremes. I can feel the top, price wise we are very close. Time wise, we could chop near 1200 for several days. INTC reports earnings after the close today, that should be good for some movement in the futures tonight. As for today, I think we will just chop around, I am neutral here.
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6 comments:
I read the market waffled and went down after INTC each of the last 3 reporting periods although going up leading to it.
Check out this piece...
http://trendandvalue.blogspot.com/2008/11/666-s-500-and-13-year-cycle.html
Look at ABK. I wish I can short 100K of this. r
Here's the cycle in a nutshell and a reason why I think bears will not make money if they continue to trade the way they do for the next few years.
Bears made have made good money from 01 to 04 and and from 08 to 09. But the rest of the way, they were lagging.
95 to 00 : greatest bull market in history. Coincides with Clinton administration, Greenspan, and a benign economic cycle as well as the advent of the internet and emergence of silicon valley.
00 to 04 : bear market, bears did good but overall market is shitty. Coincides with W Bush administration, 9/11, and the end of world peace, and the tech crash.
04 to 07: bears just treading water trying to short a market that doesn't go down. Coincides with Real estate boom and free money policy in terms of lending to bums with no money who want to buy million dollars houses. Greed is back in full force from Wall Street, the government, to the little guy on main street thinks he can flip houses forever.
07 to 09: bears get a last hoorah as real estate crashes, subprime crashes, wall street crashes, the economy crashes in a doomsday scenario.
09 to 13: back to the same old shit DAWG. We're blowing more bubbles full after the market crashed again for a period of 2 or 3 years as it did after the turn of the new century. Markets always go down faster than they go up, but this shit is done with now. The crash has already crashed. Bears expecting further crashes are in massive denial and this will be even more evident going forward. These 3 or 4 years will be the period of the REBOUND, Banana Ben, teenage girls on the internet taking pictures of their naked bodies and posting it everywhere, idiots on facebook, myspace, zanga who think they are fucking writers, zero interest rate policy, China unpegging the Yuan therefore buying less treasuries and curbing the deficit, brought on by massive government pork spending which will turn out to have been a good thing including healthcare which will stop these insurance companies from continually to rape the average citizen out of his money along with the overpaid doctors and nurses.
Bottom line, market is going up for the next 2 to 3 years and the economic cycle is now UP.
Stop shorting and work on the long game otherwise you're not gonna make much money in a period of time where opportunity will be plentiful.
Sold DRV 7.40 OD
Long JTX @ 1.55
OD
Notice, when all the analysts, strategists and the media says the market is going to go up, it goes up.
When they start saying the market is going to correct, it goes up.
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