Friday, January 29, 2010
GDP Excitement
The GDP number came in better than expected, which was widely anticipated, yet the market went up on it anyway. The buying won't go away easily, traders have been well conditioned to buy dips. Instead of a cascade selloff, I imagine a drip drip selloff with down days sprinkled with flat to slight up days. I think the low for this correction is still many days away. Today is the end of the month, historically bullish, but that hasn't really held up for the past several years. The Chicago PMI number will be out at 9:45, but usually its leaked a couple minutes early to members. I will maintain my short position.
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9 comments:
The German DAX is at 1.5%. We have to drop before the DAX closes.
Instead of a cascade selloff, I imagine a drip drip selloff with down days sprinkled with flat to slight up days.
You sounded like a weatherman right there.
Cloudy with a chance of sprinkles and slight winchells with half and half cream no sugar
Pretty sure we're going to 1120 now. Could be wrong, but I could be right. A close over 1100 solidifies everything.
I am still bearish, once we get today's rally out of the way, I expect some serious selling next week.
What's the catalyst for more selling though? 5.7% that's greater than greater than expected.
If we close weak today, you have a point, but the market already had it's 5 to 10% expected correction. We were down like 6 or 7% this week.
You had a good trade yesterday and if you covered during the overnight session it would have been a great trade. I thought we were going to be down over 1% today. They are manipulating the overnight sessions for some reason, and I think it's because to trap bears.
The fact that we didn't trade much above 1100 this week tells me a lot. The buyers are not aggressive anymore, and the fundamentals are horrible as everyone knows. Its a game of musical chairs, to sell to the bigger dummy.
The market is not cheap enough to just blast the bears regularly.
GDP and earnings are all backwards looking.
The market is a discount mechanism. It is telling us that in 6 months time that GDP will be back to negative and that earnings are about to head downwards again.
This trading is so annoying. Just break support and shake everybody out already.
Well dawg, I have to respect your experience as a big ass Kodiak and ability to identify the bear from afar.
So if we don't close above 1088 spx today, I'm taking a loss on EDC and MED and get the fuck out.
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