Monday, July 13, 2015

We Bottomed

But its not because of the Greece deal.  We bottomed because we ran out of panicky sellers at current prices.  You need fundamental change for the worse to cause a lasting drop.  You don't get that with Grexit or with a dropping Chinese stock market.  You get it with Yellen talking interest rate hikes, a weakening US economy, etc.  These exterior forces for selling are insignificant when money is overflowing in all corners of the world.

In the end, its a money game.  If the central banks want to keep pumping out more money, then the stock market will have a hard time going down.  Same goes for the bond market.  Contagion is only an issue if there is not enough money.  If there is enough money, contagion doesn't happen and doesn't matter.

It is a chip shot to new all time highs with sentiment about as bearish as when we went down 9% in October last year.  We are going higher, whether traders like it or not.

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