Wednesday, July 8, 2015

Now its China

All eyes have been on Greece headlines but now a lot of the eyes have shifted to the growing selloff in Shanghai.  The Chinese government has no idea how to deal with a stock market, letting company execs halt their shares so they don't go down is laughable.  All it does is make it that much worse for those in those shares who want to get out but can't, forcing them to panic sell on the reopen, whenever that happens.  It prolongs the selloff forcing the selloff over many more days.  Anyway, the Chinese bubble has popped, and it will not reinflate.  Too much damage, too much bad government policy, and an economy that is dependent on loans collateralized by real estate and now equities.

Yesterday we had a V reversal intraday but it seems like a lot of short covering and eager beaver buying.  I would wait for a weak close before I would be willing to say we are near the end.  You have to get investors scared, and a V reversal just doesn't do the job.

The SPX is hanging in tough here, acting like a safe haven while Europe and Asia underperform.  I would not be a buyer today, the level where I am looking for a long is around 2040.  Based on the reluctance to go down, high put call ratios yesterday, we shouldn't get too much selling beyond that level.  But any rally attempts early today will probably be sold.  Strong resistance at 2076 and then 2082.


MM111 said...

Long 2048. Tight stop. May have bottomed but I would not be surprised if we get another puke lower with all that's been going on. May just rocket from here though since S&P seems reluctant to go any lower then 2040's.

Market Owl said...

I agree, market looks like it has a solid bid right underneath 2050. I am also bullish, but not expecting a rocket up from these levels.