Monday, July 6, 2015

Greece is a Cancer

Greece is a cancer, not something to hide with pain killers, something that needs to be obliterated and eliminated.  The best thing that could happen is a Grexit, as that will finally get rid of the Greece cancer once and for all and you no longer have that as a bear catalyst.  If you have another can kick, you revisit this same situation later on and the cancer grows.

Still seeing too many hopeful fund managers waiting for a last minute Greek deal, like Greece is the only reason we're going down.  No, most of the reason we're going down is because of reflexivity, general derisking, and fear of badly positioned players who have to puke out their positions if we go any lower.

Getting closer, but not quite at that V bottom moment.  We had the CNBC special on the Sunday night gap down, so that is the first sign of nervousness.  We didn't have a special last Sunday.  We are on the 5th trading day since the big sell day last Monday  Usually you will get a bottom usually between the 6th and 7th trading day after the big sell day, when the selloff has started in earnest.

The Chinese have outdone themselves.  The king of all micromanagers have jumped another level in the realms of historical micromanaging by ordering brokers to support the big caps on Shanghai.  So a market that goes from 2500 to 5000 and back down to 3800 over a span of 6 months requires government support?  LOL.  Tragic comedy.  Sure, you can mask anything with money, as the last 7 years have shown you, but this is really reaching.

Levels on SPX where I will look to scale into buys are 2040, and 2025.  Pretty sure we get to 2040 this week, give about a 50/50 shot that we get to 2025 on this down leg before we go back above 2100 by opex Friday, July 17.


MM111 said...

Strong bounce end of session. Small short only.

MM111 said...

Phew 2084 already. Getting very high, very quick.