Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Out of Treasury Short

I have covered the Treasury short a day earlier than planned, because it is trading stronger than I expected compared to overnight price action.  Also, this S&P looks like it is ready to roll over at any moment and I don't want to take a chance at getting caught short Treasuries when the S&P gets dumped.  I still think we'll likely get a bit more of a selloff in Treasuries over the next couple of days, but the risk/reward is less favorable now.  Plus, I am always nervous being short Treasuries, it's not an easy trade.

I have legged into a short crude oil position, this time looking for a bigger move than before, as the inventory situation is getting more bearish and the WTI/Brent spread speaks to this.


Anonymous said...

Sold ESV @ 24.38

Long July 80 BABA calls @ 6.20

Ol Dawg

Market Owl said...

BABA has a lockup expiration coming up. Lot of supply going to come out.

Anonymous said...

Its 2 weeks from tomorrow. Ill be oit of this by tomorrow or day after

Anonymous said...

By January 2017 if wti can get to 70 uso will be at 27 and 18 january 2017 calls will be worth 9 dollars. U can buy them now at 4 dollars. What are the odds of this trade working as planned?

Market Owl said...

You are forgetting about the rollover effect on USO. Right now, with this steep contango futures curve, USO is losing 4%/month on rollovers.