Thursday, March 26, 2015

Gray Swan

Well, that crude oil short timing was about as bad as it gets.  I wouldn't call Yemen a black swan, because that is something that really creates havoc, but the volatility was definitely elevated overnight.  A bit scary, as the shorts scrambled to cover in the face of HFT front running.  That is what happens with HFTs, they will exacerbate moves as they front run orders and cause prices to go further than they naturally would.

A move in crude oil on geopolitics is usually short term, unless it disrupts supplies like Libya.  But in most cases, and probably this case, the short term rally will be given back in subsequent days.  I did take a partial loss on the short, but maintain a smaller position, which I will increase again once the storm calms down.  I expect WTI to get back to $45 sometime in April.

Surprised to see bonds weak again today, considering the equity weakness.  Seems like just a consolidation of a huge rally over the past 3 weeks.  Don't have a strong opinion on S&P, looks like we could have a small bounce but I won't play it.  And not really interested in shorting either.

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