Friday, March 20, 2015

Dollar is the Lynchpin

The dollar is controlling the market.  Today, you have a weaker dollar, and that is helping crude oil squeeze some shorts (a possible short opportunity today) and the market is trying to stay above 2100 again.  I read news that there were $20B in equity fund inflows this week, most of it ahead of the Fed meeting.  The fund managers are now fearless, they buy ahead of the events, and after the events.  With Janet Yellen giving the green light for blowing bubbles, you have a market gone hog wild.

Bonds are loving it too.  Everything is going up.  The "future is so bright, gotta wear shades" market.  This rally shouldn't last too long, you cannot build a long lasting rally on hopes of weaker economic data so the Fed doesn't raise rates, and to keep the dollar weaker.  Earnings season is coming up in a few weeks, I am sure de-risking will be back on the menu before that period.

Waiting for a spot to short crude oil, for a longer term swing.

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