Friday, January 9, 2015

Tougher Game for Bulls

It isn't going to be so easy for the S&P bulls to have their way this year.  Yes, they still seem to have the upper hand over the bears, but the edge is much smaller.  If we were in 2014, today would be either a flat or an up day.  After a 2 day up move off a seemingly another V bottom, we are down 20 points from the highs.  A good jobs number was bought in premarket and actually traded like the distant past, when good jobs numbers gap ups were often sold.

It is a bit of a confusing time to read this market, because both sides are much more even.  When there is clearly more buying power than selling power, it makes it more comfortable to be long.  And if there is clearly more selling power than buying power, it makes it more comfortable to be short.  But the recent price action is showing me that both sides are close to even strength.  That makes it tougher to make trades with conviction.  And without conviction, it is hard to make big money.

The main opportunities that I can take with conviction is deep oversold dip buys in S&P close to former support areas, around 1960, and if that level fails, then 1900, or buying Treasuries when S&P looks overbought and sentiment overly bullish.  Right now, we aren't in either scenario.  It is just slop and chop in the middle of the range.  Perhaps occasional day trades but no longer term trades at this time.  I am out of the Treasury long entered this morning pre-NFP.

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