Thursday, January 29, 2015

Finally a Red Fed Day

Wow, that is what you call a change of character.  A monster down move after a gap up off good AAPL earnings and a dovish Fed.  It looks like we'll soon be testing the lows from 2 weeks ago, and perhaps, even the lows from December.  The sharpest down moves occur at the end of a pullback, and it feels more panicky out there.  It could be trying to pick the exact bottom, but would still like to see a little bit closer to ES 1975 before I pull the trigger to get long.  In any case, I think you have to look long only because the big move from here will be up, unless of course this is now a bear market, which would mean more gut wrenching down moves over the next two weeks.  But a long at these levels should pay off over the coming weeks.  I don't think the bear market has started just yet, but I could be wrong.  It is definitely looking like a much weaker market than what we've seen in the last couple years, and we're overvalued, but the ECB QE makes me hesitant to say the bear market is here.  The ECB QE probably gave this bull market an extension life line of a few extra months.

Looking to buy dips in ES if we get an intraday selloff, otherwise I will hope to buy weakness tomorrow.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Long FCX Mar 20 17 calls @ 1.30

Anonymous said...

Fuck one of my worst trades.

Market bounces the next few days and my ass will be saved however.

Market Owl said...

Looks like we made a bottom again, SPX saved again at 1988. Probably back to an uptrend for the next 2 weeks, so your FCX should bounce.