Wednesday, January 28, 2015

One Last Push

There is a lack of completion.  The pullback started on the last day of 2014, and it is now 4 weeks old.  Most pullbacks last at most 1 month, so if this follows that pattern of the past, we are almost done with the pullback and we should rally hard soon.  But we are getting incomplete selloffs.  Yesterday is an example, where you could have really flushed out the bulls, but the potential positive catalysts, AAPL earnings and FOMC announcement kept the bulls optimistic enough to pull off a save and V bottom intraday.
When you get these incomplete selloffs, the rallies are lackluster, so it makes the game that much harder.  I still believe that once we get through with the FOMC, the sellers will overwhelm the buyers who have no positive catalyst remaining.  Then we should get that flush out that I've been waiting for.

Should grind higher a bit until we get that FOMC announcement.  I am expecting weakness post-FOMC, not sure if it comes immediately after the announcement, or on Thursday/Friday.  I am looking to buy Treasuries today in anticipation.


Anonymous said...

Covered TSO at the open 80.30. Now short again at 82.68.

Anonymous said...

Very nice trade on the treasuries. You called the move out exactly. How low do you think crude will go?

Anonymous said...

By the way I think we'll see 1850 on the SPX sometime in the first half of this year? Don't you think so? This kind of volatility doesn't lead to a new highs and it already looks like a right side of the mountain look on the S&P.

What was said by the Fed today? Is it the possibility of a rate rise in the 2H or oil crashing that caused such weakness. Oil going down more could drag the market with it as well.

Anonymous said...

I think crude oil can get down to $42, and bottom around there. So not much downside left.

I am not so bearish on the S&P. I think we are close to a short term bottom and could bounce back up to 2060 in a week or two.