Monday, November 24, 2014

Seasonally Strong

We are now entering the heart of the seasonally strongest period for stocks, from Thanksgiving week to the first week of January.  With all the central bank goodies thrown at this market, I cannot fathom anything upsetting this bull run.  If there is something bad that happens, the dip buyers will be there to make sure the dip doesn't last for more than a couple of days.

Yet I cannot get myself to get long after such a huge run higher, and with all the good news out.  Even the massive amount of secondaries and IPOs on the calendar failed to put a dent into this market.  We had to get overextended on Tuesday to even get a slight dip the following day.  I thought the equity supply would at least slow down this train, but it hasn't.  Perhaps post opex hangover will do something, but I wouldn't hold my breath for a dip.  We probably just go sideways to work off the overbought charts and then grind higher again.  Expecting a strong week for stocks and Treasuries, as Treasuries usually are strong going into month end, especially on a holiday week.

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