The Last Hurdles for Bears

The ECB, BOJ, and NFP.  The bears somewhat fear the first two, and don't fear the last one.  They should fear the last one.  The nonfarm payrolls are due for a beat of consensus, and wouldn't that fit in nicely with Obama's campaign.  After all, we did get beats on ADP the last two months, so we're due for a catch up by the US government labor statistics.  They're all made up anyway, and they will do what they can to achieve objectives: provide an excuse for QE3 last month(weak number), and help Obama's re-election this month(strong number). 

We are in a manipulated financial world, but supply and demand still matters.  We have had a lot of ETF inflows since the ECB and FOMC went balls to the wall.  Despite these inflows, we've made no ground higher over the past 3 weeks.  Despite the cries of 1500, 1550, new all time highs, QEinfinity has not caused prices to rise.  The market jumped, and fell right back down. 

The intraday volatility has increased since last Tuesday.  It is noticeable in the intraday trading.  This increase in volatility while trading sideways, a sign of a topping process.  I believe the last gasp higher will be on a strong nonfarm payrolls number, and then it should be the start of a pullback in earnest next week.