You can just feel it in the action. This is much different than when were trading at 1453 in mid September in a super tight intraday range. The action is much more two way, with eager buyers and eager sellers. Increased volatility intraday while we churn. Same price, different price action. There is a battle going on, where as before, the bears not only didn't put up a fight, but they didn't even show up.
The Obama - Romney debate was an excuse to gap up the futures, and I'm sure we'll get a spike higher on a favorable nonfarm payrolls report, but afterwards, the cycle sets up for weakness heading into Q3 earnings. The market has given us a lot of information since September 25, our first sizeable down day after QEinfinity. As expected, we bounced back off the first pullback, as it is almost always bought after a strong uptrend. The question now is do we consolidate for a few more days early next week or do we go down in earnest right after the nonfarm payrolls report. I don't know, but either way, I would be favoring the short side over the next 2 weeks.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
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