Crowd is Less Bullish

It is true that the investing public is less bullish now than on September 14 when we were trading at the same prices.  But you have to realize that the funds and retail piled in over the last 3 weeks, a lot of buying power was spent.  So you've satisfied 2 groups of bulls, those that wanted to buy momentum, they bought right after QE infinity, and those that wanted to buy the pullback, which happened last week.  There could be a minor subset of investors waiting for a deeper pullback to get in, but it seems from all the market talk that most of the big money isn't in that group, and were anxious to get in before the train left.  So if the market plays out like I think it will, if we go back down to 1425, it should prove my thesis that most of the buying power was used.  And the market will almost certainly continue down from 1425 to 1400 before finding support. 

Today's nonfarm payroll report is a classic example of data fitting the purpose.  You had weaker data reported the last two months, to get QE 3 fired up, and then you had positive revisions to more accurate numbers this month after the QE gun was already shot to boost sentiment.  So Obama gets a boost in both cases.  I may sound like a conspiracy nut, but the unemployment rate going down to 7.8% during THIS month is laughable.  Why the sudden drop in those looking for work?  We know most of the public looks at the unemployment rate and not the number of new jobs.  These jobs numbers are almost as blatantly made up as the CPI numbers, if that is even possible.