Saturday, June 2, 2012

U.S. - Europe Gap

Is the United States 50% more valuable now than Europe compared to 3 years ago?  How does one explain the huge discrepancy in performance for such highly correlated developed markets similar in size.  Has Europe gone back to the Stone Age?  Last time I checked, Europe isn't using arrowheads to hunt and women aren't gathering nuts and berries.  Is the U.S. now the role model for running economies throughout the world (tax cuts, government stimulus, QEs, and IPhones)? 

Can this all be explained by the B.B.'s bullets, going hog wild on pork stimulus, and running gigantic budget deficits?  Perhaps on the fiscal side.  Corporate profits definitely get a boost from tax cuts without reduction in spending.  But not really on the FX side, because the euro is actually weaker now than the dollar compared to 3 years ago.  So in dollar weighted terms, U.S. is closer to 60% more valuable than Europe over that time.

This trend is unsustainable.  The valuation gap has gotten enormous.  And unlike Japanese companies, European companies actually have a decent return on equity.  This is setting up for a monster reversion to the mean in the coming years.  A recession in the U.S. and the popping of the Apple bubble will likely be the trigger. 


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