Friday, June 29, 2012

Only Looking Short

It is now TOO DANGEROUS to play long.  At 1350, you are playing with fire on the long side.  No, it is more like lighting a Roman Candle backwards, with the wick pointed at you.  I am not expecting an immediate splash downward, but we have pretty much reached the price objective.  Upside is very limited here, we could maybe squeeze another 10 points to 1370.  The time objective has yet to be met, but that will likely be met with low volume narrow range trading next week.

I am stalking a short position, perhaps even starting today if we get to 1353.  More likely, I will start a short position next week.  This Euro news will calm the bond markets, but it won't calm the European economy.  Only way that happens is if Europe takes a page from Obama/Bernanke 101: a tax cut/pork fiscal combo with QE.  We are far away from that and need to see more dead bodies (perhaps Merkel's?) before we get those other goodies.

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