All the Statistics Say Sell

If we are going to go by history and believe that what happened in the past will repeat, then we should sell off soon and retrace down to 1150.  That is what should happen.  But this market has defied the odds to keep going higher despite high levels of bullishness, lots of complacency, and a lack of fundamentals that support these levels.  It feels like a bubble.  I am still in hit and run mode but I am going to hold on to the short until I see a dip.  Then I will cover and reshort after the next run.  The swing short position will have to wait.  If I see a bit more volatility in the coming days, that should be a strong signal that we are exhausted on the upside.  We have yet to see that.