Most of the predictions for 2010 are for a strong 1st half with a weakening 2nd half. There are hardly any cries for the need of a "healthy" pullback like there was from June to November. Most are positioned for further rallying in January. Sentiment surveys, Rydex fund flows, and put call ratios show very few bears are around. Unless we get a boatload of mutual fund inflows in January, we will not sustain this pace. From past history, the retail crowd usually waits for the economy to get strong before jumping in. So I don't expect them to jump in yet. I expect a decent sized pullback in January. Next week, I will be looking to short strength aggressively.
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I might be early but i started buying TZA here and now...will add if needed...
Also short DTG from 1 week ago
...any thoughts?
tommorow shud be much more interesting...one way or another.
thanks for a great blog
I don't know anything about DTG. But from a brief look, seems like a good short.
As for shorting now, be aware that the 1st trading day of the year is probably the most bullish for gap ups. So I would cover at the close on the 31st, and then reshort at the open next Monday.
Dawg what did mkt do in the first day of 00?
Do u remember? I think that would be a decent analogy
10 years gone. Unbelievable.
On last day of 1999 and first day of 2000...
Date Open High Low Close
3-Jan-00148.25 148.25 143.88 145.44
31-Dec-99146.84 147.50 146.25 146.88
Big gap up and then sold off hard to finish negative.
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