Friday, December 4, 2009

Nonfarm Payrolls Pop

The numbers are out, and the bears are scrambling to cover.  It was apparent that the bears got a bit too bearish ahead of the number.  It is a crapshoot, but the jobless claims number coming in lower over the past couple of weeks was a hint that this number was not going to be as bad as expected.  Now the picture is muddied up a bit, it looks like we could go higher today, but we should see a little weakness from the opening bell, and then we'll probably keep chugging higher as bulls buy back what they sold yesterday. 

I believe the top will come sometime early next week, so I will hold off on the swing short.  But it is time to just stick with the short side from now on.  But at these levels, it is too risky to go long.  Dollar is unusually strong this morning after the number, and gold has sold off 2.5% below 1200.  This is a bad omen for coming days. There are unusual currents floating around at the moment.  I would stay away from the long side.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

What do I need to do here man?

Feels like mkt can start heading down for a few days.

Do you know anything about coal?

Market Owl said...

I'd stay short. Looking at today's action, I don't think we can bust through 1120. Dollar is rallying hard, and that's going to keep this market contained.

Anonymous said...

This range has lasted for a month. Look at this top versus the last two. Doesn't look that bullish anymore. Would have broken to the upside by now, at least more than this.

Anonymous said...

holy crap dude. mkt is following exactly eur/usd.