Saturday, December 26, 2009

First 3 Minutes

I'd like to get down to the psychology of the first 3 minutes of trade.  Often times when looking at a chart, traders tend to forget about the first few minutes of trading and focus on the opening range breakout or how a market closes.  Throughout the years, I've noticed that the first 3 minutes of trade at the open has a deeper meaning than most people think.  Those that trade during the first few minutes are almost all institutional.  Institutions don't like to trade too heavily in the premarket for fear of moving the market. They are trading size because if they weren't, they would have traded in premarket already.  They are anticipating a direction for the day's trade, and don't want to be left behind.  Thus, mostly those trading size and urgently wanting to trade are active during this time. 

Let's get down to the psychology of these traders.  These traders don't want to wait for the market to run away from them.  In a way, they are having a mini panic.  It is a greed based panic when opening a position. It is a fear based panic when closing a position.  Since fear is a stronger emotion than greed, it is more likely that traders are closing positions than opening them.  If that is so, the first few minutes of action usually don't last because fear is a strong emotion but doesn't last long.  Greed is a weaker emotion but lasts longer than fear. 

Take this into account when you see the first few minutes of action.  You can get a good read into traders' psychology just from the first few minutes.

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