The short squeeze is back on. What a market. The volatility remains intense, both going up and down. But the bounce up off the Thursday intraday bottom has been led by small caps, not the Nasdaq 100. The Russell 2000 futures is up 5.6% as I write, while the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1.9%. That is a huge change of character for this market which has been led by Nasdaq 100 stocks.
The buying in the momentum big cap stocks looks exhausted, and the money is flowing to the laggard small caps. The US stock market will only go as high as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, and AMZN will take it. The market cap of those 5 stocks combined is over $5 trillion. They are THE stock market. And they have been underperforming the past 3 days. It is still a bit too early to say that they will start lagging now, but the most popular hedge fund trade is still long Nasdaq 100, short Russell 2000. If that trade starts to go bad, I have a hard time imagining the broader market to sustain a rally.
Let's see how the hedgies react to their long/short positions going against them in the coming days, if they can't get their favorites to outperform anymore, that's probably the sign that the buying in those names is completely saturated, and the Nasdaq 100 is topping out.
I have added some shorts this morning on the big gap up, will add some more if we rally more in the middle of the week.
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42 comments:
I agree that fb googl aapl are approaching double or triple tops but there is no saying that they wont break those tops. Also realistically amzn looks like its about to break out from this base at 2450.
Also you can say that hedgies will start sector rotating out of qqq stocks and into xlf stocks and iwm stocks.
Market has come up along way and i believe we need to take a breather here with a .5 to 1 percent correction tmrw but i think thats just a chance for shorts to cover. I think were going to 3150 for real this time
Sold ddd short bby
So much good news: MRNA coronavirus 100% cure, Friday we had SRNE's coronavirus 100% cure, and now talks of a eurobond. It's so bright, gotta wear shades! Gut tells me this is another good news top, coinciding with SPX resistance at 2950-2980. And QQQs underperforming while the crowd gets euphoric. As Gekko would say: dump it.
I agree we are setting up for a strong pullback but i think its thursday or friday of this week. I think a stock like wfc has to go to at least 26 to 27 before shit goes south again. Ultimately though it needs to go to 30. 10 million worth of calls on mrna. Like thats gotta be a huge chunk of the niggas net worth to be betting on something like that. As the head of r and d for glaxo smith kline im sure he knows infinitely more than your average stocktwits piker
Dawg if mkt holds over 2950 today i dont think its going to pullback tmrw. I think we may low vol rig it up to 3000 by thursday.
Sold my wfc and covered by bby. Longed w at 151.5 for daytrade. Then get back in wfc
Sold W 154.34.
Short half position bby holding overnite. Dont want to hold long. Dont want to max hold short
Covered bby flat
Long 1500 wfc. Adding more in any weakness tmrw
Long 3000 jblu 8.95
Sold wfc sold 1700 jblu. Holding 1300 jblu overnite
long roku 119 wfc 24.93
sold roku 117.5
sold wfc 24.8
short ayx 139.83
covered ayx 139.01
long kss 17.13
Spy 300 this week incoming.
Sold kss 17.28
Long wfc 24.95. Holding
Short luv 28.42
Covered luv 28.15
Long acb 14.37
Sold acb 14.98
I had 4000 kss at 17.13 lol
Fda softens stance on hydrochloroquoxine (sp).
Most people think DJT is a fool. The reality is most people are the fool. Do not discount anything this guy says. Everything said and done is calculated and has a purpose. Most things he says turn out to be true.
Long more wfc 24.50
Long 10 spy 229 sep puts 14.9
Trump is a fool. You overthinking it, believing he is some master strategist. He got lucky facing a woman in 2016, any male would have soundly beaten him in the last election. US still has a strong bias against female leaders, plus Hillary was a weak uninspirational candidate,
Air pockets in this market. Wow, that was a quick 25 point SPX drop out of the blue on nothing. We are topping this week, last graceful exit opportunity for longs before grind lower into the fall.
Trump is way smarter than present but not there sleepy joe the king of the nursing home.
Yeah we could pull back which is why i picked up some puts. Wfc going to 30 by the summer
Short luv 27.75
Why aren't we tanking dawg. Spooz up .67% wtf.
Covered luv 28.65
long wfc 24.44
sold qqq puts 14.20
long acb 13.09
sold wfc 24.60
clearly breaking out of the range now for spx. Maybe 307 now. Not in a straight line but pullbacks will be small until we get there imo
short luv 28.93
covered luv 29.19. one of them days.
Sold acb 13.20.
Short luv 29.09
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