Thursday, September 13, 2018

Buyback Blackout Periods

We are coming up on the stock buyback blackout period which usually lasts 4 weeks every 3 months in mid March, mid June, mid September, and mid December.  The SPX chart highlighting the time period for each of the last 4 years. 

Sep 2014- Sep 2015
Sep 2015-Sep 2016

Sep 2016-Sep 2017


Sep 2017-Sep 2018

As you can see during a period when the SPX has gone from 2000 to 2900 over 4 years, the stock blackout period during that time (64 weeks) is actually negative.  There was a spectacular failure early this year as massive stock inflows in January provided the buying power during a time when corporations are not buying back stock.  Other than that, it has been mostly a steadily negative time period. 

We got US-China positive trade deal news yesterday, and along with a benign CPI number, the bulls are pushing SPX at 2900.  Still remain bearish here. 

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is good analysis. Yup

Still think we have a meltup that takes us past 3000 with force.

If we correct because of these blackout periods, it will just be a btfd op.

Market Owl said...

Yeah, I agree about making a new high after a fall correction. The November and December period is the time when buybacks are at their highest of the year.