We are coming up on the stock buyback blackout period which usually lasts 4 weeks every 3 months in mid March, mid June, mid September, and mid December. The SPX chart highlighting the time period for each of the last 4 years.
Sep 2014- Sep 2015
Sep 2015-Sep 2016
Sep 2016-Sep 2017
Sep 2017-Sep 2018
As you can see during a period when the SPX has gone from 2000 to 2900 over 4 years, the stock blackout period during that time (64 weeks) is actually negative. There was a spectacular failure early this year as massive stock inflows in January provided the buying power during a time when corporations are not buying back stock. Other than that, it has been mostly a steadily negative time period.
We got US-China positive trade deal news yesterday, and along with a benign CPI number, the bulls are pushing SPX at 2900. Still remain bearish here.
Thursday, September 13, 2018
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2 comments:
This is good analysis. Yup
Still think we have a meltup that takes us past 3000 with force.
If we correct because of these blackout periods, it will just be a btfd op.
Yeah, I agree about making a new high after a fall correction. The November and December period is the time when buybacks are at their highest of the year.
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